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Bungleau · 06-22-2005, 06:28 PM

Marilyn Vos Savant addressed this in a column a couple of years ago. And Bob Barker has done this on the Price Is Right for thirty-some years. Your best move is always to switch.

Would you rather have a 1/3 chance of being right, or a 2/3 chance?

If you stick with your original choice, you have a 1/3 chance of being right.

If you switch, you now have a 2/3 chance, even though one of the other two items is gone.

Why? Because originally, the other two items had a 2/3 chance of one of them holding the prize. All the host did was to eliminate one item that wasn't. So you're *still* picking the 2/3 option, even thought there's only one locket there.

Stick to the original problem. Don't put it into a new one.

06-22-2005, 06:28 PM	#39
Bungleau 40th Level Warrior Join Date: October 29, 2001 Location: Western Wilds of Michigan Posts: 11,752	Marilyn Vos Savant addressed this in a column a couple of years ago. And Bob Barker has done this on the Price Is Right for thirty-some years. Your best move is always to switch. Would you rather have a 1/3 chance of being right, or a 2/3 chance? If you stick with your original choice, you have a 1/3 chance of being right. If you switch, you now have a 2/3 chance, even though one of the other two items is gone. Why? Because originally, the other two items had a 2/3 chance of one of them holding the prize. All the host did was to eliminate one item that wasn't. So you're still picking the 2/3 option, even thought there's only one locket there. Stick to the original problem. Don't put it into a new one. __________________ B Save Early, Save Often Save Before, Save After Two-Star General, Spelling Soldiers -+-+-+ Give 'em a hug one more time. It might be the last.