Ironworks Gaming Forum - View Single Post

Dreamer128 · 10-29-2004, 06:33 PM

Bin Laden Tape Could Help Bush - Analysts

By Alan Elsner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden, the man President Bush vowed to capture "dead or alive," tossed a bombshell into the deadheat U.S. presidential campaign on Friday in a video address to the American people which some political analysts said could actually help Bush.

Bin Laden, in his first video in more than a year, threatened new attacks on the United States.

"Despite entering the fourth year after Sept. 11, Bush is still deceiving you and hiding the truth from you and therefore the reasons are still there to repeat what happened," he said.

Political analysts contacted by Reuters were still trying to digest the effect on the race with only four days to go until Election Day next Tuesday and Bush tied with Democrat John Kerry in the polls.

None thought it would persuade a large number of voters one way or another but with the race this close, even a small movement could be decisive.

"My visceral reaction is that it could hurt Kerry. I don't think the American people will take kindly to Osama bin Laden stepping into our election," said St. Louis University political scientist Joel Goldstein.

"It's an unfortunate 11th hour diversion but it reminds people of the terrorist threat and that's Bush's strong point," Goldstein said.

Kerry argued in the three presidential debates that Bush had made a fatal error in late 2001 by failing to send U.S. troops after bin Laden when he was believed to be trapped in the Tora Bora mountains of Afghanistan.

He also says the invasion of Iraq was a mistake because it diverted attention and resources from the real enemy -- bin Laden's al Qaeda organization.

RALLY AROUND THE FLAG

"Kerry is going to say, 'Why is this guy still out there threatening us? Why is he still sending videos? Why hasn't he been stopped?' But foreign threats usually work in favor of the Commander-in-Chief," said University of Iowa political scientist Michael Lewis-Beck.

"People get scared and rally around the flag. I don't think the effect will be huge but even a small change could be important," he said.

Some analysts believe bin Laden would prefer Bush to be re-elected because he has become such an unpopular figure in the Arab and Muslim worlds.

"There's no question bin Laden would rather have Bush in the White House. The Iraq war has been a fantastic recruiting tool for him and the behavior of this administration has played into his hands," said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute.

"Bush's one strong suit is that people trust him more than Kerry in the war on terrorism and this reminds people of their insecurity. Bin Laden is smart enough to know that helps Bush," Zogby said.

Polls show more voters support Kerry's positions on the economy but more trust Bush to keep the country safe.

But Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said she did not think the video would ultimately have any effect.

"My gut instinct is that it's a pretty irrelevant October surprise. We already knew bin Laden is out there and that he wants to harm us," she said.

© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

10-29-2004, 06:33 PM	#3
Dreamer128 Dracolisk Join Date: March 21, 2001 Location: Europe Age: 40 Posts: 6,136	Bin Laden Tape Could Help Bush - Analysts By Alan Elsner WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden, the man President Bush vowed to capture "dead or alive," tossed a bombshell into the deadheat U.S. presidential campaign on Friday in a video address to the American people which some political analysts said could actually help Bush. Bin Laden, in his first video in more than a year, threatened new attacks on the United States. "Despite entering the fourth year after Sept. 11, Bush is still deceiving you and hiding the truth from you and therefore the reasons are still there to repeat what happened," he said. Political analysts contacted by Reuters were still trying to digest the effect on the race with only four days to go until Election Day next Tuesday and Bush tied with Democrat John Kerry in the polls. None thought it would persuade a large number of voters one way or another but with the race this close, even a small movement could be decisive. "My visceral reaction is that it could hurt Kerry. I don't think the American people will take kindly to Osama bin Laden stepping into our election," said St. Louis University political scientist Joel Goldstein. "It's an unfortunate 11th hour diversion but it reminds people of the terrorist threat and that's Bush's strong point," Goldstein said. Kerry argued in the three presidential debates that Bush had made a fatal error in late 2001 by failing to send U.S. troops after bin Laden when he was believed to be trapped in the Tora Bora mountains of Afghanistan. He also says the invasion of Iraq was a mistake because it diverted attention and resources from the real enemy -- bin Laden's al Qaeda organization. RALLY AROUND THE FLAG "Kerry is going to say, 'Why is this guy still out there threatening us? Why is he still sending videos? Why hasn't he been stopped?' But foreign threats usually work in favor of the Commander-in-Chief," said University of Iowa political scientist Michael Lewis-Beck. "People get scared and rally around the flag. I don't think the effect will be huge but even a small change could be important," he said. Some analysts believe bin Laden would prefer Bush to be re-elected because he has become such an unpopular figure in the Arab and Muslim worlds. "There's no question bin Laden would rather have Bush in the White House. The Iraq war has been a fantastic recruiting tool for him and the behavior of this administration has played into his hands," said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute. "Bush's one strong suit is that people trust him more than Kerry in the war on terrorism and this reminds people of their insecurity. Bin Laden is smart enough to know that helps Bush," Zogby said. Polls show more voters support Kerry's positions on the economy but more trust Bush to keep the country safe. But Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said she did not think the video would ultimately have any effect. "My gut instinct is that it's a pretty irrelevant October surprise. We already knew bin Laden is out there and that he wants to harm us," she said. © Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.